50 Books Challenge: Book#3: Tomorrow’s World, A Look at the Demographic and Socio – economic Structure of the World in 2032 by Dr. Clint Laurent

I bought this book in 2014 but came to read it 2 weeks ago (and finish just now). Anyway, the book is about the demographic and economic projection of the world in 2032 based on 2012 data (it was published in 2013). Although the book is entitled “Tomorrow’s World” but the coverage of the “World” is just 74 countries which excludes mostly small countries like Pacific Islands, Nepal, Bhutan, the Vatican, etc. and mostly African countries whose demographic and economic data is unreliable according to the author. The book is surprisingly easy to read and not loaded with technical jargon that would alienate a non – mathematically inclined reader. It is also not loaded with numbers and mathematically formulations save for a quick explanation on the derivation of the processed information, which is surprising for a statistics book. The writing style of the author is pretty clear and straight forward and “cold” in that he treats human beings (birth and deaths and all) as numbers (you would be forgiven if you think that the author is a Vulcan)! The way the author structures the chapters show a deductive step by step logical thinking process. It is as if the chapters serve as an introduction to the next chapter and yet each chapter can stand alone as in it could be read as a separate article altogether. The insights offered by the author are both unique and useful. His analysis incisive. The first half of the book is mostly demographics and it is irreputable since the 20 – year time frame that the book analyzes, the projected future adult population are already alive as of this writing, i.e. one could determine the size of the workforce in the future as well as the number of newborns based on the present population of young people. The second half of the book is about economics or about the market size of each population segment and regions/ country and this is where it is contentious (like all other economic projections). I personally find the authors projections conservative particularly in relation to China, India, and Developing Asia and rather optimistic for Western Europe and North America (and come to think that the author’s day job is in Hong Kong and a China expert so to speak!). The basis for his economic projection is the size of the future labor force based on demographics, the trending employment rate, and the projected labor productivity based on the educational level of the workforce (the higher the educational attainment, the more productive is the labor force because of its capacity to utilize technology to improve productivity). In short, the author is basing on the full potential of an economy to do its projection which is the way to go but his assumptions of employment rates particularly in relation to Europe, and North America seemed optimistic while his assumption on the productivity of China in particular seemed conservative. Another thing that I find questionable is the numbers on the propensity to save and to spend. Note that the data is based on 2012 and it’s just some 4 years after the Great Recession back then. People got burned in that economic episode and therefore their propensity to save or to spend is anomalous to the norm if the author’s data is based on that year of survey (to be fair, the author didn’t mention the time frame of the data on propensity to save and to spend used in the book, it is just inferred). Lastly, the elephant in the room or shall I say in the book is China and India by virtue of their huge population of more than a billion. Though the projections are conservative but I find the authors insights pretty much stand out, unique. I mean you won’t hear such informative and unique insights from other statisticians or marketers. It’s just unique.

Since the publication of the book, a lot of things have changed. China abandoned the one child policy, its now a two – child policy and there are rumors of totally abandoning that as well although the author imply that such change in policy wouldn’t have any meaningful impact to the future demographics of China but it remains to be seen since there are anecdotes of willful violations of the one child policy during its heyday. Furthermore, there is an avalanche or tsunamis of immigrants into Europe due to the Syrian Civil War and into the US due to “Dreamers” and the consequent backlash against immigration. This immigration wave and its curtailment would radically alter the age profile of the population and would drastically affect future demographics with huge implications on the purchasing power of the households in Western Europe and North America. Then there is also technological advances with the rise of AI and robotics which could drastically change the nature of jobs in the future, making some skills obsolete while a precious few skills precious. Again, this would impact future labor productivity, employment rate, and thence, purchasing power (to be fair, the author did mention such possibility in the last chapter of his book but for just a brief mention in relation to India). Lastly, the booming stock market in the US, the ongoing Trade War, and the rise of Inflation after a decade of slumber would hugely impact future economic growth potentials of regions which again affects future income and buying power.

This book is written for marketers in mind and it is useful indeed. I highly recommend it however, use with caution as some projections may no longer be valid.

50 Books Challenge: Book # 2: Civilization and it’s Discontent by Sigmund Freud

            I had this book for quite some time, 7 or 8 years perhaps. Never got to read it until last week. I bought this book because of my interest in history and I wanted to find out how civilization per se and the history that it wrought is influenced by the “mind”. Well, I should say that I got my answer but I still have question at the back of my head that I can’t discern for the moment and I have a lot to digest. Anyway, here is what I think about the book. First of all, Freud is a German Jew and doesn’t write or speak English and so this book is a translation only and something might be lost in translation. By how much, I don’t really know. Second, the words chosen in the writing though not strictly technical nor flowery but is of such formality, depth, and smoothness that one would “get lost” from reading and end up not understanding a single word. Reading a second time would definitely help. Furthermore, the sentences, the paragraphs are so intertwined, so connected to each other that one cannot leave the reading in the middle and pick it up later on because one would get lost in the chain of thought as expounded in the writings. You can only take a pause literally on every chapter which is like 10 – 20 pages per chapter. Thirdly, most authors would embark writing a book especially a work of fiction with a skeletal outline in mind along with an ending. They “stuffed the meat” while writing along the way. Reading Freud’s work, one get sense that he is making things up as he goes as in literally, you are “riding along” in his thought process which is why putting down the book in mid – sentence poses such peril in understanding the genius’ work. One could discern this by the several hanging analysis, thought dead ends littered throughout in his book. It’s like reading a psychoanalytical monologue of Freud by Freud. Fourthly, I find Freud overtly concern about sexuality and eroticism to be questionable. Freud’s obsession is expected given his advocacy that sexual tension is the undercurrent of the individual’s psychosis. However, I do have doubts about it. I mean Oedipus Complex, Anal Eroticism, Obsession of the Breast all those stuff though could explain the functioning of civilization itself but is there more to it? I can’t tell after all I’m not a psychiatrist. Lastly, Freud is a Jew and yet he is overtly critical about Christianity (Abrahamic religion) in particular, and religion in general. However, I find in his writings, a whiff of influence of Christianity. His theoretical development of the Super – ego or in layman’s term, the guilty conscience as one of the fundamental structure in human psychosis smacked of a Christian influence. In other belief systems, the idea of “judgement” doesn’t exist. If Freud were not born into a “western” value oriented society, would he develop the idea of the Super – ego?

            Freud’s work is remarkable in the sense that he is trying to connect individual psychosis with that of civilization’s behavior. His work is akin to the Grand Unified Theory in Physics, which is still elusive as of now.  In physics, there is a set of laws that could best describe that of the Quantum universe or the universe of the Atom and another set to understand the Cosmos or the visible universe of the planets, stars, wormholes, black holes, and dark matter and the these two sets of laws are not interchangeable, i.e., one cannot apply the Quantum theory to the Cosmos and vice versa. Hence, Physicists are trying to come up with a theoretical framework, the Grand Unified Theory that could reconcile the two and for the moment, it is still elusive. Freud’s book on the other hand, manages to connect psychology (for the individual) and sociology (for society or civilization). In Freud’s theory, Man is happiest when his freedom is at its maximum when he encounters no opposition, no challenge, no limitation, i.e., when he is alone however, no man can live alone because Man is susceptible to the vicissitudes of Nature, to the frailties and gradual decay of his flesh, and for his need to love and be love. Henceforth, Man has to cohabitate with other Man in order to increase his safety and answer is longing to be with someone and in the process, this cohabitation creates Civilization. However, rules and compromises have to be made in order for cohabitation to work and in the end, Man has to voluntarily give up some of his freedom and restrict his liberty. However, subsuming Man’s freedom undermines his happiness and as a result, individuals with psychosis are born and thence, civilization’s discontents. But the story doesn’t stop there, civilization reinforces this “order” and imposes ideas like rules, tradition, culture, and religion and the individual integrates this ideas in his development creating the “conscience” that would be its unseen master for the rest of his existence which in turn makes individuals unhappy and produces more “psychotics” and discontents. This reminded me a passage of Jacques Rosseau (or was it Voltaire, can’t recall) in one of his writings, “Man is born free but is everywhere in chains.” How true, how true.