50 Books Challenge: Book #5: Management Stripped Bare by Jo Owen

The 50 Books Challenge is an internet challenge. The challenge simply put is to finish reading 50 books in a year or roughly 1 book per week and so far, I’m lagging behind….

The book should have been called “Management, the Reality Show” for it’s candid depiction of real life management. In fact, it’s not even written or read like a book but more like an advice column. It has that undeniable British witticism written into it and the tone is also unmistakably cynical especially towards management theories and top management. The book definitely belongs to the Behavioral School of Management (see Mintzberg 10 schools of management) and eschew towards office /organizational politics. Nevertheless, the author does offer valuable insights into management and on occasion provided some pretty interesting theories and frameworks (such as Chaos Pricing Theory). All of this make this book a must read for management practitioner. Highly recommended. One downside of the book if one can call it a downside is that the book is structured like a dictionary with each topic arranged in alphabetical order with the longest topic span like 3 pages and 5 or 6 paragraphs while the shortest topic has only something like 10 words maybe less. The problem with this kind of structure is that the topics changed abruptly and there is an absence of a smooth flow of thinking precisely because of the sudden changes. However, the upside of this structure is that one can easily look up the topic just like an encyclopedia or a dictionary.

50 Books Challenge: Book # 4: Practical Production Control, a Survival Guide for Planners and Schedulers by Kenneth Mckay and Vincent Wiers

The 50 books challenge is an internet challenge that I adopted which is simply finish reading 50 books in a year or roughly 1 book per week. However, I’m lagging behind….

The operative word here is Practical and indeed the book is a candid structured lecture or more like a pep talk of do’s and don’ts of Production Control. For the clueless, Production Control is akin to Sales in it’s relationship to Marketing, i.e., Sales being the tactical, executive arm of the policy making Marketing. Production Control’s relationship to Operations Management is similar but don’t mistake Production Control to be the totality of Operations Management though. The book is absent on analytical Frameworks save for one in the second to the last chapter. Also, it hardly mentioned any production control techniques, i.e., no formulas, no models, the stuffs. Instead, the book is replete with common sense experiences of the authors, something you pay good money to listen in talks/ in consultancy but nothing deep though. As for the writing style of the author, it’s straight forward, with a generous serving of humor which is something rare in a technical book. Technical at times with its jargons but not that difficult to understand. Overall, I felt disappointed with the book in that you’ll not get something useful out of it save of course if you’re into implementing APS (Advance Production Scheduling) and MRP, in which case, you’ll might get some noteworthy tips (practically more than half of the book is devoted to that aspect). If you’re aim is to learn to control production from this book, better be disappointed.

50 Books Challenge: Book#3: Tomorrow’s World, A Look at the Demographic and Socio – economic Structure of the World in 2032 by Dr. Clint Laurent

I bought this book in 2014 but came to read it 2 weeks ago (and finish just now). Anyway, the book is about the demographic and economic projection of the world in 2032 based on 2012 data (it was published in 2013). Although the book is entitled “Tomorrow’s World” but the coverage of the “World” is just 74 countries which excludes mostly small countries like Pacific Islands, Nepal, Bhutan, the Vatican, etc. and mostly African countries whose demographic and economic data is unreliable according to the author. The book is surprisingly easy to read and not loaded with technical jargon that would alienate a non – mathematically inclined reader. It is also not loaded with numbers and mathematically formulations save for a quick explanation on the derivation of the processed information, which is surprising for a statistics book. The writing style of the author is pretty clear and straight forward and “cold” in that he treats human beings (birth and deaths and all) as numbers (you would be forgiven if you think that the author is a Vulcan)! The way the author structures the chapters show a deductive step by step logical thinking process. It is as if the chapters serve as an introduction to the next chapter and yet each chapter can stand alone as in it could be read as a separate article altogether. The insights offered by the author are both unique and useful. His analysis incisive. The first half of the book is mostly demographics and it is irreputable since the 20 – year time frame that the book analyzes, the projected future adult population are already alive as of this writing, i.e. one could determine the size of the workforce in the future as well as the number of newborns based on the present population of young people. The second half of the book is about economics or about the market size of each population segment and regions/ country and this is where it is contentious (like all other economic projections). I personally find the authors projections conservative particularly in relation to China, India, and Developing Asia and rather optimistic for Western Europe and North America (and come to think that the author’s day job is in Hong Kong and a China expert so to speak!). The basis for his economic projection is the size of the future labor force based on demographics, the trending employment rate, and the projected labor productivity based on the educational level of the workforce (the higher the educational attainment, the more productive is the labor force because of its capacity to utilize technology to improve productivity). In short, the author is basing on the full potential of an economy to do its projection which is the way to go but his assumptions of employment rates particularly in relation to Europe, and North America seemed optimistic while his assumption on the productivity of China in particular seemed conservative. Another thing that I find questionable is the numbers on the propensity to save and to spend. Note that the data is based on 2012 and it’s just some 4 years after the Great Recession back then. People got burned in that economic episode and therefore their propensity to save or to spend is anomalous to the norm if the author’s data is based on that year of survey (to be fair, the author didn’t mention the time frame of the data on propensity to save and to spend used in the book, it is just inferred). Lastly, the elephant in the room or shall I say in the book is China and India by virtue of their huge population of more than a billion. Though the projections are conservative but I find the authors insights pretty much stand out, unique. I mean you won’t hear such informative and unique insights from other statisticians or marketers. It’s just unique.

Since the publication of the book, a lot of things have changed. China abandoned the one child policy, its now a two – child policy and there are rumors of totally abandoning that as well although the author imply that such change in policy wouldn’t have any meaningful impact to the future demographics of China but it remains to be seen since there are anecdotes of willful violations of the one child policy during its heyday. Furthermore, there is an avalanche or tsunamis of immigrants into Europe due to the Syrian Civil War and into the US due to “Dreamers” and the consequent backlash against immigration. This immigration wave and its curtailment would radically alter the age profile of the population and would drastically affect future demographics with huge implications on the purchasing power of the households in Western Europe and North America. Then there is also technological advances with the rise of AI and robotics which could drastically change the nature of jobs in the future, making some skills obsolete while a precious few skills precious. Again, this would impact future labor productivity, employment rate, and thence, purchasing power (to be fair, the author did mention such possibility in the last chapter of his book but for just a brief mention in relation to India). Lastly, the booming stock market in the US, the ongoing Trade War, and the rise of Inflation after a decade of slumber would hugely impact future economic growth potentials of regions which again affects future income and buying power.

This book is written for marketers in mind and it is useful indeed. I highly recommend it however, use with caution as some projections may no longer be valid.

50 Books Challenge: Book # 2: Civilization and it’s Discontent by Sigmund Freud

            I had this book for quite some time, 7 or 8 years perhaps. Never got to read it until last week. I bought this book because of my interest in history and I wanted to find out how civilization per se and the history that it wrought is influenced by the “mind”. Well, I should say that I got my answer but I still have question at the back of my head that I can’t discern for the moment and I have a lot to digest. Anyway, here is what I think about the book. First of all, Freud is a German Jew and doesn’t write or speak English and so this book is a translation only and something might be lost in translation. By how much, I don’t really know. Second, the words chosen in the writing though not strictly technical nor flowery but is of such formality, depth, and smoothness that one would “get lost” from reading and end up not understanding a single word. Reading a second time would definitely help. Furthermore, the sentences, the paragraphs are so intertwined, so connected to each other that one cannot leave the reading in the middle and pick it up later on because one would get lost in the chain of thought as expounded in the writings. You can only take a pause literally on every chapter which is like 10 – 20 pages per chapter. Thirdly, most authors would embark writing a book especially a work of fiction with a skeletal outline in mind along with an ending. They “stuffed the meat” while writing along the way. Reading Freud’s work, one get sense that he is making things up as he goes as in literally, you are “riding along” in his thought process which is why putting down the book in mid – sentence poses such peril in understanding the genius’ work. One could discern this by the several hanging analysis, thought dead ends littered throughout in his book. It’s like reading a psychoanalytical monologue of Freud by Freud. Fourthly, I find Freud overtly concern about sexuality and eroticism to be questionable. Freud’s obsession is expected given his advocacy that sexual tension is the undercurrent of the individual’s psychosis. However, I do have doubts about it. I mean Oedipus Complex, Anal Eroticism, Obsession of the Breast all those stuff though could explain the functioning of civilization itself but is there more to it? I can’t tell after all I’m not a psychiatrist. Lastly, Freud is a Jew and yet he is overtly critical about Christianity (Abrahamic religion) in particular, and religion in general. However, I find in his writings, a whiff of influence of Christianity. His theoretical development of the Super – ego or in layman’s term, the guilty conscience as one of the fundamental structure in human psychosis smacked of a Christian influence. In other belief systems, the idea of “judgement” doesn’t exist. If Freud were not born into a “western” value oriented society, would he develop the idea of the Super – ego?

            Freud’s work is remarkable in the sense that he is trying to connect individual psychosis with that of civilization’s behavior. His work is akin to the Grand Unified Theory in Physics, which is still elusive as of now.  In physics, there is a set of laws that could best describe that of the Quantum universe or the universe of the Atom and another set to understand the Cosmos or the visible universe of the planets, stars, wormholes, black holes, and dark matter and the these two sets of laws are not interchangeable, i.e., one cannot apply the Quantum theory to the Cosmos and vice versa. Hence, Physicists are trying to come up with a theoretical framework, the Grand Unified Theory that could reconcile the two and for the moment, it is still elusive. Freud’s book on the other hand, manages to connect psychology (for the individual) and sociology (for society or civilization). In Freud’s theory, Man is happiest when his freedom is at its maximum when he encounters no opposition, no challenge, no limitation, i.e., when he is alone however, no man can live alone because Man is susceptible to the vicissitudes of Nature, to the frailties and gradual decay of his flesh, and for his need to love and be love. Henceforth, Man has to cohabitate with other Man in order to increase his safety and answer is longing to be with someone and in the process, this cohabitation creates Civilization. However, rules and compromises have to be made in order for cohabitation to work and in the end, Man has to voluntarily give up some of his freedom and restrict his liberty. However, subsuming Man’s freedom undermines his happiness and as a result, individuals with psychosis are born and thence, civilization’s discontents. But the story doesn’t stop there, civilization reinforces this “order” and imposes ideas like rules, tradition, culture, and religion and the individual integrates this ideas in his development creating the “conscience” that would be its unseen master for the rest of his existence which in turn makes individuals unhappy and produces more “psychotics” and discontents. This reminded me a passage of Jacques Rosseau (or was it Voltaire, can’t recall) in one of his writings, “Man is born free but is everywhere in chains.” How true, how true.

THUCYDIDES TRAP PART II

As a history enthusiast, to say that I’m not intrigued by the very idea of Thucydides trap is an incredible understatement. Add to that, you have 16 cases of mostly European history to review from. I’m very intrigue! Call it boredom but in fact, I could add a few cases to the study of Thucydides’ trap. Anyway, here are the 16 case studies enumerated by Graham Allison:

	Period	Ruling Power	Rising Power	Result	War	Winner	Aftermath
1	1st half of the 16th century	France	Hapsburg Empire	War	Italian Wars	Hapsburg	France degenerated into chaos and civil war while the Spanish Empire was born. Italy where the wars are mostly fought laid devastated
2	16th – 17th century	Hapsburg Germany (Holy Roman Empire)	Ottoman Empire	War	Hapsburg -  Ottoman Wars	Ottoman Empire	Tripartite division of Hungary into Royal Hungary, Transylvania, and Ottoman occupied Hungary (from which the legend of Dracula is born). It would take another century before Hungary regains its freedom.
3	17th century	Hapsburg Germany	Sweden	War	30 Years War	Sweden	Part of the Reformation, one of most destructive wars, Germany was utterly devastated by the war.
4	17th century	Dutch Republic	England	War	1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th Anglo – Dutch Wars	England	The war is about control of the maritime trade and colonies. The leader of the Dutch Republic eventually became the rulers of UK (William III and Mary) through the Glorious Revolution but the Dutch economy declined afterwards and soon became a second rate power
5	Late 17th century – early 18th century	France	Great Britain	War	War of Spanish Succession, War of Augsburg, War of Devolution, War of Reunion, American Revolution	France	France’s Bourbon dynasty became the new ruling house of Spain but the wars overstretch France leading in a generation later to the French Revolution and the Reign of Terror. Also, America became independent of UK.
6	Late 18th and early 19th century	UK	France	War	Revolutionary Wars, Napoleonic Wars	UK	The first of the modern day Total War. France’s manpower was severely depleted by the wars and would take a generation to recover. Furthermore, civil strife was common leading eventually to the establishment of the 2nd (or was it the 3rd) French Republic.
7	Mid 19th century	UK France	Russia	War	Russo – Turkish War or the Crimean War	UK France	Russian expansion was checked but Ottoman Turkey was devastated by this war. Florence Nightingale was a participant in this war.
8	19th century	France	Germany	War	Franco – Prussian War	Germany	The second French Empire is dissolved, Germany is unified under the Hohenzollern due to the machination of Otto Von Bismarck to establish the German Empire.
9	Late 19th – early 20th century	Russia China	Japan	War	1st Sino – Japanese War, Russo – Japanese War	Japan	Japan became the premier power in East Asia, Korea becomes a colony of Japan, years later, both the Qing Empire and the Russian Empire fell to Revolutions and ensued a bloody civil war.
10	Early 20th century	UK	US	NO WAR		US	The Great Depression
11	Early 20th century	UK France Russia	Germany	War	World War I	UK France	Utter devastation in terms of lives and property for both the winners and losers. This war saw the dissolution of the 4 empires, The Russian Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the German Empire, and the Austro – Hungarian Empire. Civil wars in Turkey and Russia resulted from this world war. The resulting economic hardship formed one of the causes of the Great Depression. Furthermore, the war brought about the world’s first pandemic, the Spanish Flu.
12	Mid 20th century	Russia, UK, France	Germany	War	World War II	Russia, UK, France	The most devastating war ever with millions killed both civilians and combatants. In the end, Germany is divided.
13	Mid 20th century	US	Japan	War	World War II	US	Atomic bomb was dropped over Hiroshima Japan.
14	1970s – 1980s	Soviet Union	Japan	NO WAR		Japan	Asian Economic Miracle
15	1940s – 1980s	US	USSR	NO WAR		US	Cold War, USSR collapse after America outspend the Soviets in the arms race dragging the USSR to bankruptcy. In between however, several proxy wars erupted such as the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
16	1990s - present	UK France	Germany	NO WAR		Germany	Germany became the most wealthiest and most influential country in the EU

The first 4 or 5 columns were taken from Graham Allison, the last 3 columns were my additions. Personally, I don’t agree with the some of the identities of the rising/ruling power nor is the definition of rising and ruling power. For instance, case #1, calling France a ruling power is iffy. If my memory serves me right, France at that time, has just emerged from the Hundred Years War with England and has just successfully centralized under the Valois kings. France fit the bill of a rising power more than say a ruling one. The Hapsburg in this case study is under the rule of Charles V of the Holy Roman Empire (as Carlos I, king of the united Spain). Spain has just finished with its Reconquista and is just unified as a single kingdom while the Holy Roman Empire is being forcefully centralized after centuries of fragmentation. Therefore, the Hapsburg Empire could also be considered as a rising power also. So the point is instead of saying that one is the rising power and the other ruling power, it is more appropriate to say that both France and Hapsburg are contending rising power of that era. So where is the Thucydides trap there? Anyway, going by Graham Allison’s definition, it is interesting to note that of the 16 cases being reviewed, there are 9 instances wherein the rising power won including the peaceful ones (where war didn’t happen). Further analysis would show that Case #1 (Catholic – Hugenot religious tension and conflict), #2 (Protestant Reformation), #3 (Protestant Reformation), and #8 (Political strife under Napoleon III, Republicanism is on the rise), the ruling power is facing a very serious socio – political upheaval at home while in case #4, 9, 10, 14 and 16, the ruling power were in various stages of decline which is why the rising power won. The rising powers in these cases also faces challenges but compared to their counterpart, the ruling powers, they can be considered to be in the pink of their health. Of the remaining 7 cases wherein the ruling power won, case #12 is unique (WWII) because the ruling powers won due to outside intervention of another rising power. Cases 5, 6, 7, 11, 15, the ruling powers simply outlasted the rising powers. Case 13 is also unique because the ruling power is decidedly more powerful than the rising challenger.

To be continued…

Thucydides' Trap

Most people have a misconception about historians in general. They think that historians are people who remember the names of people who are dead for decades if not centuries as if they are their best friends, or about dates in the past as if it’s their birthday or talk about events long gone and buried in sand as if they were there to personally witness it. Can’t blame them because that is what most people came to know about history. Dates, events, names of great personality, the very things that they tried in vain to memorize and remember in their high school history exam. History however is more than just names, events, and dates. History is about the past, or more apt, the logic of what happened and why it happened in the past. Believe it or not, the more you study history, the more you’ll discover that history follows a pattern, a recurring pattern. The old adage that “history repeats itself” is quite true. And nothing rings truer than the concept of a “Thucydides’ Trap”, a term coined by Graham Allison of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs of the Harvard Kennedy School in 2015. Thucydides from which the trap was named was an Athenian general and a noted historian during the Peloponnesian War (some 2,400 years ago) and after the defeat of Athens, he wrote a book, “History on the Peloponnesian War”. At the conclusion of his seminal work, Thucydides concludes “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired Sparta, that made this war inevitable.” It is from this conclusion that Graham Allison formulated his Thucydides trap, “when a rising power challenges a ruling power, war inevitably ensued and would end badly for both”. He further reinforces his thesis by analyzing events of the past 500 years mostly in Europe with one Asian case, that of the 16 cases of Thucydides trap, 12 resulted in war. In 4 cases, war was avoided. Graham Allison developed this thesis not out of some academic boredom but to analyze the present relationship of China (the rising power) and the US (the ruling power). To him, the Sino – US conundrum fits the bill of a Thucydides trap and to quote Graham, “when a rising power’s growing clout resulted into growing entitlement, sense of it’s importance, and demand for greater say and sway which in turn, engenders the ruling power’s fear, insecurity, and determination to defend the status quo”, a fact that is in full display right now. And to Graham, the current path of the Sino – US friction would more likely to lead to conflict, war and bloodshed but this is not inescapable provided that “cooler heads” prevail and that people heeds the lessons of history.

To read more about Graham Allison’s work try this page, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/thucydides-trap-are-us-and-china-headed-war